Mark Phillips: The American Question

11/3/01: "The last untapped reserves of oil and gas in the world", aren't.

INTRODUCTION

Some activists who explain the Afghan war in terms of oil suggest its purpose is to open Kazakstan's vast resources to exploitation. Language such as "by far the biggest untapped reserves in the world", ¹ or "the last untapped reserves of oil and gas in the world" ² is prominent in antiwar discourse. The argument claims that the Kazak supplies are so critical that governments driven by the interests of big oil are fighting in Afghanistan to get at them.

But, it ain't so. The Kazak resources are large, but not uniquely or even exceptionally so; and there are richer fields available which would be easier to exploit, less vulnerable to political instability, more plentiful, and probably more profitable.

USGS ON WORLD OIL RESERVES

In 2000, the U.S. Geological Survey published a large-scale, five-year study of world oil reserves titled "World Petroleum Assessment 2000". ³ Its conclusions are straightforward and not hard for nonspecialists to understand. Here are the highlights which are germane for our purposes:

"Areas assessed in the World Petroleum Assessment 2000 that contain the greatest volumes of undiscovered conventional oil include the Middle East, northeast Greenland Shelf, the West Siberian and Caspian areas of the Former Soviet Union, and the Niger and Congo delta areas of Africa. Significant new undiscovered oil resource potential was identified in a number of areas with no significant production history, such as northeast Greenland and offshore Suriname."

"Areas that contain the greatest volumes of undiscovered conventional gas include the West Siberia Basin, Barents and Kara Seas shelves of the Former Soviet Union, the Middle East, and offshore Norwegian Sea. A number of areas were identified that may contain significant additional undiscovered gas resources where large discoveries have been made but remain undeveloped. Examples include East Siberia and the Northwest Shelf of Australia."

"The potential additions to reserves from reserve growth are nearly as large as the estimated undiscovered resource volumes. These estimates imply that 75 percent of the world's grown conventional oil endowment and 66 percent of the world's grown conventional gas endowment have already been discovered in the areas assessed (exclusive of the U.S.). Additionally, for these areas, 20 percent of the world's grown conventional oil endowment and 7 percent of the world's grown conventional gas endowment had been produced as of the end of 1995."

Thus re oil reserves, the Caspian area including Kazakstan does possess significant volumes. These however are by no means the most significant in the world, being comparable to those of Siberia, but rather less than untapped reserves in the Middle East, etc. Re natural gas, the Caspian area is not significant. Further, 75% of the world's oil reserves and 66% of natural gas have already been discovered; 80% of the oil and 93% of the natural gas in these known locations remain unused. ⁴

This research indicates that the Caspian reserves including those of Kazakstan are significant, but are not as important as sometimes stated in antiwar discourse. They are certainly not "the greatest source of untapped fossil fuel on earth". ⁵

IT WOULD PROBABLY BE MORE PROFITABLE TO EXPLOIT OTHER SOURCES

Further, these data seem to suggest that other reserves would likely be sources of higher profits. Middle Eastern reserves are the most plentiful, and the infrastructure already exists there allowing them to be secured, extracted, and transported efficiently. Given the availability of alternatives that would seemingly be more cost-effective and more immediately profitable, it seems unlikely that governments would be willing to go to war in a peripheral area like Afghanistan purely to secure investments in Kazakstan.

Indeed, the Caspian region seems especially fraught with political "instability". Conspiracy theorists will argue that this is the reason the war exists: to bring "stability" to the region. If so one must question the competence of the powers that be, whose war is not at all likely to produce stability in our lifetimes. Meanwhile capital is free to flow to areas of the world which are richer in resources and are politically stable, say, offshore Greenland.

This is not intended to argue that large-scale investment by western oil companies is not taking place in Kazakstan, when, clearly, it is. My point is that the significance of these resources has been exaggerated by antiwar activists who argue that the U.S. presence in Afghanistan is intended to bolster corporate investment around the Caspian. It's not. It's intended to crush an armed resistance movement. I'm sure this would be seen as a positive thing by Caspian investors. Nevertheless these investors are not the motive for the U.S. presence in Afghanistan.

SOURCES?

Unfortunately, some published antiwar analyses do not reference their sources of information. This weakens their claims to credibility. There are many examples, but I'll quote just one to make the point:

"the Caspian Basin, the greatest source of untapped fossil fuel on earth and enough, according to one estimate, to meet America's voracious energy needs for 30 years." ⁶

It would strengthen the author's argument to know where his "one estimate" can be found.

CONCLUSION

When antiwar activists argue that the Afghan war is a war for oil, they're making an analysis which is too simple to be helpful. This discourse of "the last untapped reserves of oil and gas in the world" is empirically false and politically demobilizing. A sustained antiwar mobilization requires a more complex, nuanced, and verifiable analysis.

ENDNOTES

¹ Ted Ball, "It's about oil" San Francisco Chronicle, 11/2/01. (Back to article.)

² John Pilger, "Hidden Agenda: Behind War on Terror" ZNet, 10/30/01. (Back to article.)

³ U.S Geological Survey, "World Petroleum Assessment 2000, Executive Summary". All quotations from this survey refer to this source. (Back to article.)

⁴ In fact oil reserves in the Middle East and North Africa are double those of the former Soviet Union. U.S Geological Survey, "World Undiscovered Assessment Results Summary". All quotations from this survey refer to this source. (Back to article.)

⁵ Pilger, "There is no war on terrorism" 10/29/01. (Back to article.)

⁶ Pilger, ibid. Pilger isn't unique in this practice, though. Ball's article quoted above makes similar claims without citation: "Geologists estimate that sitting beneath the wind-blown steppes of Kazakstan are 50 billion barrels of oil -- by far the biggest untapped reserves in the world. (Saudi Arabia, currently the world's largest oil producer, is believed to have about 30 billion barrels remaining.)" It would be good to know which geologists, and where their estimates are published. (Back to article.)

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