Mark Phillips: The American Question

9/11/02: Year one.

I wrote my article "It's Not a War for Oil" in November 2001. How's it stood up?

1. My theme was that the Afghan war is poorly explained by economism or conspiracy theory. These weak explanations mask the political struggles which are key. As the War on Islam unfolds, I feel it's likely that these explanations will increasingly drop away. Meanwhile I'll stress that there's no oil pipeline in Afghanistan today, and there won't be one in our lifetimes.

2. I correctly pointed-out the need for a balance-of-forces analysis. But, I did not articulate the central point that Iran is the ultimate target of the War on Islam. The Iranian Revolution threw imperialism onto the defensive, triggering an upsurge in popular struggles which reverberates today throughout the Islamic world. All roads lead to Tehran.

3. My analysis lacks complexity, meaning it fails to disentangle the war's component strands. Mandel's The Meaning of the Second World War provides an important model. He identifies five distinct wars which combined to form a complex whole: 1) The inter-imperialist war for world hegemony won by the U.S.; 2) The counter-revolutionary war fought by German imperialism against the Soviet Union, won by the Soviets; 3) The war of national liberation of the Chinese people against Japanese imperialism which became socialist in the course of struggle; 4) Wars of national liberation by Asian peoples, some of which also spilled-over into socialist revolution in the course of struggle, e.g., Vietnam; 5) Wars of national liberation within the occupied countries of Europe, many of which also grew-over into socialist revolution, e.g. Yugoslavia, Greece, Albania, Italy, France. It's important to apply a similar method today. The dynamics of struggles as diverse as Afghanistan, Iraq, Colombia and the Philippines must be differentiated before they can be meaningfully grouped.

4. I strongly overestimated the rhythm of Afghani national resistance to occupation. I believed that the U.S. attack would bolster the Taliban, who would launch a guerilla war which would quickly become a war of national liberation. My mistake was in overestimating the degree of national consciousness present in a pre-national, tribal culture. Today a low-intensity war of resistance is underway. U.S. troops will be in Afghanistan a very long time, and sadly, many more people will die there. But this is not the same as a war of national liberation.

I hope this points in a helpful direction. There's going to be war in Iraq, Iran, and god knows where all else in the coming years. If we can better understand the dynamics of these struggles, we may be more effective in mobilizing for peace.

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1. "All roads lead to Tehran", Phillips
2. "Complexity", Phillips
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