Mark Phillips: The American Question

11/15/02: All roads lead to Tehran.

Great revolutions send waves through history, inspiring like-minded movements. The Bolshevik revolution sparked world Communism; 1949 led to international Maoism; the Cuban victory encouraged Guevarism; the March on Rome sparked a Fascist upsurge throughout Europe; the American Revolution triggered a wave of anti-colonialism lasting a century.

America's "War on Terror" attempts to roll back the most recent of these great waves: the Islamic Revolution which erupted in Iran in 1979. Inspired by the Iranian victory and by the Soviet defeat in Afghanistan, sophisticated popular resistance movements have arisen throughout the Islamic world. Al Qaeda is currently the most-publicized in America, but there are others more closely rooted in popular mobilizations, especially Hizballah, Islamic Jihad, and Hamas. The War on Terror is not about oil in any direct sense. Rather it's about politics: breaking the momentum of the radical Islamic upsurge. All roads lead to Tehran.

This is the strategic reason why Iraq is the next target. Afghanistan was easy: a weak state with an internal opposition. Iraq is second because it's the next easiest: a militarily weakened and diplomatically isolated regime already under siege. North Korea is not part of this agenda, despite the more present danger it presents re weapons of mass destruction.

Who'll follow Iraq?

It's not clear that it matters. The choice of targets is tactical. In the long run all roads lead to Tehran.

Antiwar activists must be mindful that the War on Islam will continue for many years, involving ever-larger numbers of American troops as occupiers and anti-guerilla combatants. A military draft is inevitable. As resistance becomes organized and methods developed to counter American technological superiority, American casualties will mount. In the worst-case scenario, American occupiers will face increasingly sophisticated guerilla armies from Jalalabad to Beirut.

The parallels with Vietnam are striking, but there are key differences:

1. Iran, Iraq and Lebanon are economically more industrialized than Vietnam was, with higher percentages of urbanization. The cities will be key centers of struggle.
2. The Islamic Revolution is under the leadership of far-right movements with parallels to Fascism, and, there are no living democratic forces capable of winning leadership among the working classes. The familiar "Permanent Revolution" dynamic of national liberation struggles led by democratic forces with significant working-class support is unlikely.
3. Progressives in the first world will refuse to support the Islamic Revolution. Our roles as internationalists will be different than our previous experience prepares us for. In some way we must seek "third road" positions independent of the two poles of imperialism and Islamism.
4. There's no Soviet Union capable of arming the resistance fighters.
5. There are no "regulars" which can be fielded to support local guerillas, in the way the very tough and sophisticated North Vietnamese Army supported the southern National Liberation Front.
6. Geography and American technological superiority render large-scale troop movements suicidal. There won't be Dien Bien Phus or Khe Sans in this war. Most actions will involve very small units, similar to the rocket attacks and patrol ambushes in Afghanistan today.
7. Success of the resistance will depend on the depth of popular mobilization. Something like People's Wars will be necessary to expel the occupiers. It's possible that Hizballah's victories over Israel in Lebanon are a model. Regardless of models, it will be the decisions of the masses of the occupied peoples which determine the outcome.

Antiwar organizers in the U.S. and Europe must be clear that the war on Iraq is just one episode in an unfolding adventure. The U.S. will be at war with Islam for many, many years, and, as our society becomes more like Israel's, antiwar activists will face ethical and political choices similar to those which have historically faced the Israeli left. May we succeed where they have failed.

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